The United States and Iran are set to hold indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Tuesday, reviving a fragile diplomatic channel even as both sides signal readiness for confrontation.
The talks, mediated by Oman, bring together US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, according to a source briefed on the matter. The renewed engagement follows earlier discussions on February 6 aimed at narrowing a dispute that has spanned decades.
The diplomatic effort unfolds against a visible military build-up. US officials have said the Pentagon is preparing contingency plans for sustained operations against Iran should President Donald Trump authorise military action. Washington has deployed additional naval assets to the region, describing the posture as deterrence.
Tehran, for its part, began military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. The waterway is a strategic artery for global energy supplies, handling a significant share of the world’s oil exports from Gulf states. Regional governments have urged de-escalation, warning that any conflict could disrupt shipping and energy markets.
The core dispute remains unchanged. Washington and Israel argue that Iran’s nuclear programme could provide the capability to build a weapon. Iran maintains that its activities are civilian in nature, though it has enriched uranium to levels approaching weapons-grade thresholds in recent years.
A previous diplomatic effort collapsed in June last year when Israel launched strikes on Iranian targets, later joined by US bombers that hit nuclear facilities. Tehran subsequently announced it had halted enrichment activity. The episode left deep mistrust on both sides.
Domestic pressures complicate the talks. Iran’s leadership has faced sustained street protests linked to economic hardship and sanctions that have curtailed oil revenues. Thousands were reportedly killed in the crackdown. For Tehran, sanctions relief is central to any agreement.
Washington has sought to widen the agenda beyond nuclear restrictions to include Iran’s missile programme. Tehran has rejected that approach, insisting negotiations focus strictly on nuclear curbs in exchange for economic relief. Iranian officials have also ruled out abandoning uranium enrichment entirely.
On Monday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Budapest that reaching an agreement would be difficult but worth pursuing. Araqchi met International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi in Geneva ahead of the talks to discuss technical oversight and cooperation with the watchdog body.
The Geneva meeting is taking place as Washington simultaneously pursues negotiations elsewhere. US envoys are also scheduled to join three-way discussions with Russia and Ukraine later in the day, underscoring the administration’s attempt to manage multiple geopolitical flashpoints.
For now, diplomacy and deterrence are proceeding in parallel. Whether the Geneva talks produce substantive compromise or merely postpone confrontation will depend on whether either side recalibrates long-standing red lines. With military forces positioned and regional tensions elevated, the margin for miscalculation remains narrow.
